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We observe growing conditions for PETRONAS and related PACs capex spending upcycle beginning 2027E, arising from: i) rising domestic energy demand and security considerations; and ii) higher oil prices amidst the Middle East tensions. We U/G our sector call to POSITIVE (from NEUTRAL) as we advocate positioning ahead of the capex inflection, which we believe, should benefit most local OGSE names.
1. Crane segment:
- Newly acquired French company should start contribute by FY26Q1.
- Australia warehouse should complete by FY26Q2 then start contribute the rental income.
- Healthy order-book about RM 600m + new stream incomes
2. Construction segment:
- recent contract awarded from Petronas are solely for Muhibbah; compare previous jobs win during 2022-2023 are under consortium (share profit)
- Base on Petronas Activity Outlook release in Jan, there are another 10 fabrication jobs to award in 2026
- Muhibbah is one among five panel firm to compete for these job (fairly another 2 to grab)
- Current outstanding orderbook about 900m
3. Concession:
- airport traffic continue to growth
- But profit should reduce under new agreement
- Refer to Vinci’s recent report, Cambodia Airport has net cash about EUR 323m as end of 2025
- With 30% interest, it is equal to RM 445m
- no necessary reserve much cash anymore for future expansion as concession agreement replaced
- dividend receive from concession increase from 77m in 2024 to 146m in 2025
1. Dividend increase to 3.5cent/share
2. Cash balance jump significant to 780m
3. Q4 result include one off items loss of 38m; exclude it should look much better
4. Airport contribution reduce under new agreement
5. Contribution from construction segment increase
6. Crane segment remain stable
7. Outstanding order-book increase to 1.5b
But im not sure how to calculate the net profit base on EBITDA.
Earning before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation :
Interest: net cash
Tax: standard 20% or lower under concession
Depreciation: old airport should very low